"Century Times" opportunities and threats in current Myanmar Politics
15 May 2010
แို แာแာျแแ္แแ္။
*ႏိုแ္แံေแး แာแီแฅแုแွ ေแးแာေแာ แกแြแ့္แกแแ္းแ်ား*
แ။ NLD แกေแแ แกแ
ိုးแ၏ แိႏွိแ္แႈแ်ား ေแพแာแ့္ NLD แ แแွိแแ့္ แ
ာแာ ေแာแ္แားแႈ
แဲแกแ်ားแ
ုแို ၎แိုแ ေแြးေแာแ္แြဲ แแแ္ျแแ္းေแพแာแ့္ แกျแား แီแိုแေแแ
ီ
แกแ္แกားแ
ုแ်ားแ แြဲေแ แံแ
ားแแွိแแแ္ ျแแ
္แแ္။
The decision by the NLD not to contest may result as an opportunity for
other opposition groups with the probability of capturing key NLD sympathy
votes. It is unclear whether this factor played an issue in the NLD
deliberations. Nevertheless, it is clear that the regime will bare the
consequences in their mistreatment
of the former main opposition leaders. The objective is for new principals
to carry forward the voice for democracy and a differentiation to the
public.
แ။ NLD ေแြးေแာแ္แြဲ แแแ္ျแแ္းေแพแာแ့္ แီแိုแေแแ
ီ แกแ္แกားแ
ုแ်ားแกแพแား
ေแြးေแာแ္แြဲแြแ္ แွแฅ္แฟแိဳแ္แႈแแ္ แိုแိုแွ်แ၍ แ
ိแ္แแ္แ
ားแ
แာ ေแာแ္းႏိုแ္แแ္။
With the absence of the NLD, the regime may view other opposition as less
hostile.
An opportunity for dialogue can arise while having a larger participation in
the decision making process.
แ။ แแแผ/แกแแแผ ျแแ္းแံုแႈแ်ားแြแ္ NLD แေแแ် ျแแ
္แแ့္ แแแผแแ္แား แု แแ္แွแ္ေแာ
แံแိแ္แို ေแြးေแာแ္แြဲแြแ္ แွแฅ္แฟแိဳแ္แူ แီแိုแေแแ
ီ แกแ္แกားแ
ုแ်ား แြဲေแ แံแ
ား
แแွိแိแ့္แแ္။
NLD is no more the owner of the brand *"good"* who used to appose the *
"evil"* military so that the rest of the contesting stakeholder will be
benifited the brand accordingly.
แ။ NLD แါแီ แ်แ္แိแ္း แံแျแแ္းแแ္ แแ္แေแာ္แกแြแ္ แกแိแ แိုแกแ္แ်แ္ ျแแ
္ေแာ
แแ္แွိဳးแိုးแ
แာ ျแแ္แာ แแ္แာ แိုแိုแီแแ္แ်ဲแ แแ္ေแแံ แกแြဲแแกแ
แ္းแแီး
ေแ်ာแ္แံုးแြားျแแ္း ျแแ
္แာ แိုแိုแ แแ္แူ แแွိေแာแေแာ แกေျแแกေแแြแ္
แแ္แေแာ္แแီးแกား แီแြแ္แ
ြာ แိแ္းแိแ္းแြားႏိုแ္แแ္ แแ္แဲแိแ္แแแ္။
This decision by the NLD have resulted as an end to their public opposition
position. With the regime's greatest threat for over the last 3 decades
becoming abolish, there may be an impact on the unity of the military.
แ
။ NLD แแ္ แแ္แแ့္ แกแါแแွ် แแာแ်ဴแာแ်ေแာ แံုးျแแ္แ်แ္แ်ား
แแ်แွแ္แဲ့แူးေแာ္แแ္း แแု แกแံုးแกျแแ္แแ္ แแแแံုးแกแแိแ္ แกျแแ
္
แแ္แေแာ္ေแါแ္းေแာแ္แ်ားแို แกံ့แกားแแ့္ေแ
แဲ့แแ့္ แกแံုးแกျแแ္ ျแแ
္แแ္။
This is arguably the first time the NLD has managed to
surprise general Than Shwe, a challenge that may lead him to revise
parts of his strategy, potentially creating new space in specific
areas.
แ။ NLD แါแီ แแွိေแာ့ျแแ္းแแ္ ေแแေแกာแ္แแ္းแ
ုแพแแ္แို แါแီႏုိแ္แံေแးႏွแ့္
แြဲျแားแိုแ္แแဲ့แုိแ ျแแ
္ေแ
แဲ့แฟแီး แกแ်ိဳးแားႏိုแ္แံေแး แႈေแာแ့္แွ
ေျแာแ္းေแႊแ แႈျแแ္ แံုးแแ္ แုแ္แိုแ္ႏိုแ္แแ္ แกေျแแกေแ ေแးแာแฟแီ ျแแ
္แแ္။
The fact that DASSK would now de facto be out of partisan politics may help
her change some of her perspectives, and put her in the position of a moral
authority, rather than that of a politician, a position in which she is more
likely to influence the entire political spectrum, and that would allow her
to weight on political decisions even within non democratic institutions,
something she had failed to achieve so far, knowing that this scenario may
remain the political reality for a number of years to come.
แ။ NLD แါแီ ေแြးေแာแ္แြဲ แแแ္ျแแ္းေแพแာแ့္ ေแြးေแာแ္แြဲแ်ား၏ แုแ္แေแแို
แိแိုแ္แြားႏိုแ္แแ္ ျแแ
္แာ แแ္แေแာ္แแ္ ေแြးေแာแ္แြဲ แแားแွ်แแႈ แွိေแးแို
แိုแို แုแ္ေแာแ္แแ္ แာแแ္แွိแြားแฟแီ ျแแ
္แแ္။
By refusing to take part in the election, the NLD has denied legitimacy to
the post electoral government. The new elected government must earn
legitimacy through several factors including the liberalization across the
socio-economic spectrum.
แ။ NLD แါแီ၏ แိแ္แိုแ္ แแ္แိုแ္แႈแ်ားေแพแာแ့္ แုံแျแแ္แแแ့္ ႏိုแ္แံေแး แกแ
แိႏွိแ္แႈแ်ား NLD แါแီ แแွိေแာ့ျแแ္းေแพแာแ့္ ေแ်ာ့แါးแြားแฟแီး ႏိုแ္แံေแး แกแ
แုแ္แိုแ္แแ္ แกแြแ့္แกแแ္းแ်ား แိုแို ေแแแြแ္แာႏုိแ္แแ္။
The decision by the NLD have resulted as an end to their public opposition
position. With the regime's greatest threat for over the last 3 decades
becoming abolish, there may be an impact on the unity of the military as
well as a re-evaluation of the military's role in the new civilian dominated
politics.
แ။ NLD ႏွแ့္ ေแแေแกာแ္แแ္းแ
ုแพแแ္แแ္ แแုေแြးေแာแ္แြဲแြแ္ แแ္แေแာ္၏ แฟแိဳแ္แแ္
แแုแ္ေแာแေแာေแพแာแ့္ แแ္แေแာ္၏ แแ္แူแแ္း แกแိแกแแ္း แแုแ္ေแာ့แု แိုႏိုแ္แါแแ္။
ေแแေแกာแ္แแ္းแ
ုแพแแ္แแ္แွ แါးแแ္แဲ့แွ်แ္ ႏိုแ္แံေแး แกแ แႇိႏႈိแ္းแႈแ်ားႏွแ့္
ေแแွแ္แေแာ ေแာแ္แแ့္ แแာแ်ဴแာ แိုแားแ်แ္แ်ား ေแာแ္းแိုႏိုแ္ေแแိแ့္แแ္။
Dialogue may become possible, as DASSK and her party are no more direct
political rivals of the regime.
*ႏိုแ္แံေแး แာแီแฅแုေแพแာแ့္ ျแแ ္ေแแแြแ္แွိေแာ แกแားแกแီးแ်ား*
แ။ NLD แါแီႏွแ့္ แแ္းแာေแာ แกแိုแ္แกแံแ်ား၏ ေแြးေแာแ္แြဲ แแแ္แแ္
แံုးျแแ္แ်แ္ေแพแာแ့္ ေแြးေแာแ္แြဲแ်ား၏ แแားแแ္แႈแို แိแိုแ္แြားႏိုแ္แแ္
ျแแ
္แာ แกแแ
္ေแแแြแ္းแာแแ့္ แกแ
ိုးแ၏ แแားแแ္แႈแိုแแ္း แိแိုแ္ႏိုแ္แါแแ္။
แိုแိแ
แฅแแ္ ျแแ္แာႏိုแ္แံ၏ แုแ္แေแแိုแแ္း แႇိဳးႏြแ္းေแ
แแ္ ျแแ
္แာ แกแာแแ္แြแ္
แိแ္แိုแแႈแ်ား แแ္แိုแ္းေแးแกแြแ္ แกแแ္แกแဲ แွိေแ
ႏိုแ္แါแแ္။
The elections losing legitimacy will result in a more challenging process
for the western powers to lessen economic sanctions. Unfortunately, with
current sanctions in place, it will do more harm for the development of the
general public rather than having the effect on it's targets. Sectors such
as aid, civil society development and capacity building will be negatively
effected and in worst case scenario, can even result in implosion of these
sectors.
แ။ NLD แါแီႏွแ့္ แแ္းแာေแာ แกแိုแ္แกแံแ်ား၏ ေแြးေแာแ္แြဲ แแแ္แแ္
แံုးျแแ္แ်แ္แแ္ ျแแ္แူแူแုแแီး၏ ေแြြးေแာแ္แြဲแกေแแ แ
ိแ္แါแแ္แ
ားแႈႏွแ့္
ေแွ်ာ္แแ့္แ်แ္แို แႇိဳးႏြแ္းေแ
แแ္။
While many in the NLD believe this position will raise the dreams of the
general public, instead an argument can be made that this NLD decision will
promote the sentiments of depression and hopelessness- key sentiments
leading to an uprising and a social implosion.
แ။ NLD แါแီႏွแ့္ แแ္းแာေแာ แกแိုแ္แกแံแ်ား၏ ေแြးေแာแ္แြဲ แแแ္แแ္
แံုးျแแ္แ်แ္ေแพแာแ့္ แီแီแာ แกားแုံးแ แแ္แိုแ္၍ แแ္แแ္แแ္ ျแแ
္แာ
ေแြးေแာแ္แြဲแြแ္ แွိေแေแာ แဲแႏแตแแ္ แ
ုแ
ုေแါแ္း แแแ ေแแာแြแ္
แแ္ေแာแ္แွแฅ္แฟแိဳแ္แแ္ แိုแกแ္ေแာ แกแแ္ေแာแ္းแ်ား แแွိေแး ေแြးေแာแ္แြဲแြแ္
แိုแกแ္ေแာ ျแแ္แ แီแီแာ แ်ားแံแွ แံ့แိုးแူแီแႈแ်ား แแွိေแး แกแแ္แกแဲ
ျแแ
္แြားแိแ့္แแ္။
The clear bias in favor of the NLD that can be witnessed in Myanmar exiled
medias is directly (and consciously) contributing to discredit those of the
moderates who are aiming at contesting the elections. This may be
legitimate, within the democratic frame, coming
from a political organization like the NLD, but coming from supposedly
independent media, in a context where the moderates do not have the
opportunity to communicate their own opinions and platform, is a in
contradiction with democratic values.
แ။ NLD แါแီႏွแ့္ แแ္းแာေแာ แกแိုแ္แกแံแ်ား၏ ေแြးေแာแ္แြဲ แแแ္แแ္
แံုးျแแ္แ်แ္ေแพแာแ့္ ေแြးေแာแ္แြဲแแ္แแ္ แံုးျแแ္แူ ႏိုแ္แံေแး แါแီแ်ား
แီแိုแေแแ
ီ แแ
แฅာေแာแ္แ်ားแกျแแ
္ แံแိแ္แแ္ แံแแแ္ แกแားแกแာ แွိေแแแ္။
With her strong and uncompromising discourse, Aung San Suu Kyi has not only
led the NLD not to participate to the elections, she
has also discouraged many among the moderates to do so. This is directly
undermining their right to make political choices of their
own, and, again, this may prevent the NLD from being able to influence the
political process through sharing views with the moderates.
แ
။ NLD แါแီႏွแ့္ แแ္းแာေแာ แกแိုแ္แกแံแ်ား၏ ေแြးေแာแ္แြဲ แแแ္แแ္
แံုးျแแ္แ်แ္ေแพแာแ့္ ျแแ
္ႏိုแ္ေแ် แแ္းေแာ္แแ္း ျแแ
္แแ့္แแ့္ แแ္แေแာ္ႏွแ့္
แႇိႏႈိแ္းေแြးေႏြးแႈ แกแားแกแာ แံုးแေแ်ာแ္แြแ္แြားแแ္ ျแแ
္แแ္။
แกแแ္ေแพแာแ့္แိုေแာ္ NLD แါแီႏွแ့္ ေแแေแกာแ္แแ္းแ
ုแพแแ္แแ္ แแ္แေแာ္แกား
แกแြแ့္แกေแး แแแ္ႏွแ့္ แกျแแ
္ေแးႏွိแ္แြแ္แแ္ แกแแ့္ ေแ
ာแ့္แိုแ္းေแแူแ်ား
ျแแ
္ေแพแာแ္း แแ္ေแแူแဲ့ျแแ္းေแพแာแ္แ ျแแ
္แแ္။
The decision made by the NLD to effectively boycott the elections is a blow
to any attempts made to build trust between the regime and the opposition.
The regime is reinforced in its view that the opposition is standing in its
way to modernize the country, which may lead to more repression.
แ။ NLD แါแီႏွแ့္ แแ္းแာေแာ แกแိုแ္แกแံแ်ား၏ ေแြးေแာแ္แြဲ แแแ္แแ္
แံုးျแแ္แ်แ္แแ္ NLD แါแီ၏ ျแแ္แာแႏိုแ္แံေแးแြแ္ แกေแးแါแႈ แกแแ္းแแแို
แိုแ္แိုแ္ แกแံုးแแ္แဲ့ျแแ္း ျแแ
္แแ္။
The NLD denied itself any role in the political process, and failing to
recognize that this may be the only opportunity existing in the
foreseeable future.
แ။ ျแแ္แာแแ္แာ แแ္แူ แแွိေแာ့ေแာ แแ္แေแာ္၏ แกေแแกแားแแ္ แ
ိုးแိแ္แ
แာ ေแာแ္းแแ္။
แกแူးแျแแ့္ แแ္แေแာ္၏ แกာแံုแแ္ ေแ်ာ့ေျแာแ္းေแာ ႏိုแ္แံေแး แกแ္แกားแ
ုแ်ား
แกေแแแြแ္ แ်ေแာแ္แာႏိုแ္แแ္။
The regime is left without any serious political challenger, which is
detrimental to gradual change.
แ။ NLD แါแီแแ္ แแားแแ္ႏိုแ္แံေแး แါแီแแ
္แု แแုแ္ေแာ့ေแာ္แแ္း ႏိုแ္แံေแးแြแ္
แแ္แแ္ แါแแ္ แႈแ္แွားေแแฅီးแแ္ ျแแ
္แာ ၎แိုแ၏ แိแ္แိုแ္แแ္แိုแ္แႈแ်ားေแพแာแ့္
ႏိုแ္แံေแးแกแ แိႏွိแ္แႈแ်ား ေแ်ာแားแแ္แား แแြဲျแားแဲ ေแแေแါแ္แိแ့္แแ္။
แคแိแ
แฅแแ္ ျแแ္แာ့ႏိုแ္แံေแးแြแ္ แกแိแ แိုแกแ္แ်แ္ ျแแ
္แแ့္ แแ္แေแာ္แါแแ္ေแာ
แกแြแ္แူးေျแာแ္းေแးแို แแ္แံแူ ႏိုแ္แံေแး แกแ္แกားแ
ု แกแแ
္ ေแแေแါแ္แแ္ แกแแ္แแกแား
ျแแ
္ေแ
แိแ့္แแ္။ แแ္แแ္แแ แกแแ္းแแ แแွိေแာ့ေแာ NLD แါแီ၏ แกแြแဲแแ္แ်ား၊
แกแူးแျแแ့္ แံแ
ားแ်แ္ ျแแ္းแแ့္ แူแแ္แ်ားแกား แกแံုးแ်แแ္ ေแ
ာแ့္แိုแ္းေแေแာ
ေแกာแ္แแ္း แแာแ်ားေแพแာแ့္ ႏိုแ္แံေแး แုแ္แာแိုแ္แာ แွိแแ့္ แกแြแ့္แกေแးแ်ား
ေแ်ာแ္แံုးแြားแแ္။
The likely transformation of the NLD into an underground movement may invite
additional political repression. This could indirectly lead to a reduction
of the space other stakeholders like LNGOs have benefited from.
แ။ แแ္แေแာ္၏ ႏိုแ္แံေแး แกแ แိႏွိแ္แႈแ်ားแို แိုแ္แိုแ္ ေแာแ္แ်แံ၍
แွแ္ေแ်ာแ္แแ္ แံแေแ
แแ္ แแိဳးแแ္းေแေแာ แฅီးแแ္းแแ္แဲ့แိုแေแာ ႏိုแ္แံေแး
แแားแ်ားေแพแာแ့္ ေแြးေแာแ္แြဲแ်ား၏ แแားแแ္แႈ แแ္ แแ္แံ แႇိဳးႏြแ္းแိแ့္แฅီးแแ္။
The attempts by radicals to manage themselves to get arrested and prove the
political repression may invites more repressions in the future which in
turn may harm more the legitamacy of the elections.
--
Yangon Chronicle แแ္ ျแแ္แာႏိုแ္แံ แกแြแ္းแွိ แแ္แူแ်ား ေแါแ္แแ
ုံ แแแ္းแေแกာแ္ ေแာ္ျแျแแ္းแာ ျแแ
္ျแီး แာแာျแแ္ แိုေแာ္ျแแ်แ္ แกားแုံးแแ္ แူแแ္းแီแီแာ แ်ား၏ แกာေแာ္แာ ျแแ
္၍ Yangon Chronicle ၏ แေแာแား แแုแ္แါေแพแာแ္း။
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